Current markets
A Rates Trader's View
Read the market, not just the headline.
Current rates markets examined through curves, relative value, market structure and price reaction—the practical signals that help distinguish a repricing from a change of regime.
“I write the note I want on my own desk: the point in thirty seconds, the detail when I need it, and nothing I can't stand behind.”
Sébastien Gianfermi
Latest views
The Costing
Le Pen’s €140 billion, line by line, and the rate the plan needs from the market.
Read the paperThe Pause That Never Came
France’s spread widening, the carry-trade unwind, and what changes in the trading framework.
Read the paperNot the Same Party
Three central banks, different reaction functions: what Taylor-rule arithmetic implies for the sterling front end.
Read the paperThe Privilege of Being Constrained
Why covered bonds and EU-Bonds can trade through the OAT while EDF still trades above it—and what would make that hierarchy change again.
Read the paperIs the BoE Outsourcing QE?
Curve control through carry, and the risk hiding behind the Bank of England's new repo regime.
Read the paperA French Spread Playbook to the Election
Sell into the pause, buy after the panic: twenty years of daily data on where to sell France, where to buy it back, and what ends it.
Read the paperThe Bond Sell-Off: Where Do We Go From Here?
With yields at multi-year highs, how much is already priced, how much further can the sell-off go, and what would tell us that the turn is approaching?
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